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407c is not allowed to be dropped in on top of R22 either, but we all know it's happening. So, legitimate contractors that follow the rules will be hung out to dry as "rip off artists" meanwhile side-job-Joe dumps in R32 in 410a units all day long for 1/4 the price of the legit guy and gets the reputation of a hero. The only legitimate solution for our EPA would be NOT to allow sale of R32. We can have all the rules made, but if they're not enforced then what's the point? Prime example, R22 is readily available to anyone without a license on eBay, OfferUp, Craigslist, etc... Never heard of any "sting" operation to enforce any laws there. Laws in this country are only for the law abiding. Codes are only applied to those who pull permits.
We had Rapid Recovery suck out 5 50# jugs today. For the 2nd time in a row, we've had 404 in a jug. We don't do refrigeration. That contaminates the R22 and we get a fraction of we get for 97% and up. This time we had some 407C in a tank, somebody either changed out the gas and didn't mark it or topped a unit with it. Fortunately it was less than 3% of the tank so we got $8 a pound on that tank. Gonna get worse and some day when 410 alternatives come out, we'll have them contaminated.
 
Both R-32 and R-454B have advantages/disadvantages over each other. R-32 is significantly cheaper than R-454B right now, because it's older, and the patents have expired, unlike R-454B which is newer and still patented. R-454B, however, has a significantly lower GWP, so it will be better poised to comply with regulatory requirements in the future, when the GWP limits ratchet down even more - which might make it cheaper in the long term, and prolong the time before manufacturers have to redesign their equipment again.

As said above, neither R-32 nor R-454B will be allowed for retrofit into R-410A units, because of the flammability.

Right now, there are no R-32 or R-454B central ducted systems available in the US. R-410A is still the only option. For mini splits, one R-32 unit is currently on the market. It's made by Daikin and it is available for sale in 4 states, which have updated their building codes to allow flammable refrigerants. The other 46 states still effectively ban flammable refrigerants outside of tiny applications like window units, mini fridges, etc.

EPA has not confirmed the final R-410A ban in new equipment yet, but when it does happen it is expected to be January 1 2025, which will line up with the bans in several states including California. R-410A equipment being banned in 2023 is outdated information and will not be happening. However, January 1 2023 will see the introduction of new efficiency standards for central AC, and the new SEER2 rating system, which is supposed to be more accurate at reflecting real life energy consumption in the field compared to the original SEER system. Northern climates will be effectively raised from 13 to 14 SEER (by today's ratings) with the rest of the country higher.
Ummm, we have many R290 and R600a fridges and freezers, True Mfg and domestic, in our facility right now, including a 72 cubic foot GnG. So a bit bigger than a mini fridge, and much, much more flammable than R-32 or R454B

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Ummm, we have many R290 and R600a fridges and freezers, True Mfg and domestic, in our facility right now, including a 72 cubic foot GnG. So a bit bigger than a mini fridge, and much, much more flammable than R-32 or R454B

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Right, I didn't mean to suggest window units and mini fridges were the only applications that currently allow flammable refrigerants - I was just giving examples. The point is that even in those True units, the charge size is still relatively small compared to central AC. I believe the maximum allowed R-290 charge for commercial refrigerators is 150 grams.

The other part of it is that with a permanently installed HVAC system, building codes come into play and impose further restrictions, which don't apply to standalone appliances.
 
They recently increased the max to 300g for closed and 500g for open cases. We have a True self contained open case GnG, 84 cubic foot I believe, it has 3 separate R290 refrigeration systems to get around the limitation. Commercial stuff is going to modular refrigeration decks (like Follett did on their 20+ cubic foot units years ago) so you can simply swap out the refrigeration deck and repair it off-site.

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Back to the the OP's original question. R-410A equipment is all that is currently available. The federal mandate says that no contractor can sell R-410A equipment to a consumer after 1/1/23. Because of this, all the manufacturers will likely stop production by the end of this month to retool and shift production to equipment with the new refrigerants. All distributors will likely stop buying R-410A equipment shortly after. There will very likely be a nasty shortage of AC and heat pump equipment the likes of which we've never seen, not even close to 2021. It probably will last far into next year as the backlog of demand tries to catch up. It's going to be real ugly. All the previous phase outs only mandated a halt of production, not a moratorium of sales in totality. That's not nearly as disruptive to the supply chain. We've never had this happen in our industry to this day, so there are a lot of unknowns and speculation. Thanks, OBiden.

Now, as far as the refrigerant itself, R-410A will have a production step down over the next several years. This will cause price increases until demand goes down. Hopefully there will be some interim drop in replacements created but who knows. It will be available, just more expensive as time goes on.

Bottom line, if you think you can milk a couple more years out of your tired old unit, I'd consider it.

A wise man once told me "Cheer up! Things could be worse." So I cheered up and sure enough, things got worse! ;)

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Back to the the OP's original question. R-410A equipment is all that is currently available. The federal mandate says that no contractor can sell R-410A equipment to a consumer after 1/1/23.
The 2023 phase out isn't going to happen. That was the original plan, but it's been pushed to 2025 to give the states time to update their building codes - most won't be ready by then. 2023 is only going to be a SEER bump.
 
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