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I would go with yours, how could you have a high heat loss in Florida?
I use cool calc, and just stick with 400 CFM per ton.
You could always sign a waiver, and get the 2.5 ton, and be more comfortable with longer run times, and lower humidity.
Of course, I am not responsible for DIY load calcs either.
 
In theory there is almost no heat lost or gained between the two units. 3 exposed wall that square ft I’m gonna go extreme and guess 2 but nothing more than 2.5

Now keep in mind, say your load comes to 29000 btu, a 2.5t (30,000 btu nominal) won’t be what manual s would select. Expanded data would show that the 2.5t is only making 28xxx or 27xxx or 29xxx btu depending on which coil it is paired to.

That is the other half of the load calc that many seem to forget. Of it says 23456btu a 2 ton is 24000 so it’s a 2 ton. Expanded performance data of the unit shows they don’t really make 24000 btu in most cases.

But that is for another time as I have conspiracy theories for load calc software as is.


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I usually don't sweat 1000 BTU either way, it's only a matter of a few hours a year, that the cooling equipment will be a little undersized.
 
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