In Florida,the distributor guarantees saving of 25% of your heating and cooling costs,for going from a 10 to a 12 SEER ,or a 12 to a 14 SEER Heat pump.They pay the difference for the first year.The claims I've seen are very few,and we have always found thee was a problem,if they didn't save ,as above.
I'd think the saving would there or very close,if everything is done correctly.If I remember the zones are really too large on the calculator,so they may vary ,a bit within the zone.Can't speak for Gas savings ,if that's in your plans.
The one thing it does is factor in utility price increase ,that may or may not(so far not),occur.